The sudden 2019-nCoV before the Spring Festival of 2020disrupted the economic rhythm of the entire country. The nationwide fightagainst the epidemic. To prevent large-scale population movement and gathering,preventive measures such as home isolation and extension of the Spring Festivalholiday were adopted. Affected by this, China's lithium battery industry chainis also directly affected.
On the whole, the epidemic has affected the upstream,midstream, and downstream industry chains to varying degrees. Among them, thetwo major links of the entire vehicle and power battery are the most obviousand direct. In January, the production and sales of new energy vehicles fell by52% year-on-year. It is expected that The monthly decline will be more obvious,and as a result, demand for automotive power batteries will also shrinksignificantly. The impact is expected to last from February to March. At thesame time, the new energy vehicle market in 2020 after the epidemic iscautiously optimistic. Correspondingly, due to the market rigid demand,digital, electric tools, electric bicycles and other fields will be lessaffected. The market in January-February itself is a low point, and theoperating rate of battery companies is not high. With the launch, the marketwill maintain a megatrend of steady growth.
In the field of lithium battery equipment, due toemployee re-employment and supply chain, there has been a delay in orderdelivery. In terms of market demand, the capacity expansion and new projects ofbattery companies will be affected in the short term. In the medium and long term,new energy vehicles and power batteries The long-term positive trend of theindustry will not change, and the epidemic situation will not have a majorimpact on the equipment demand industry.
In the field of lithium battery materials, China ’sexport of lithium battery materials accounts for more than 70% of the globallithium battery materials. As a result of the epidemic, delivery orders forprecursors, positive and negative electrodes, separators, and electrolytes havebeen affected in the short term.
Under the epidemic situation, the capital chain isextremely critical for lithium battery enterprises. It is foreseeable that somesmall and medium-sized enterprises in the industry chain will face bankruptcyrisks in the first quarter due to capital chain problems. In the medium andlong term, the epidemic will further promote the industry's deep reshuffle, andthe market concentration in each segment will become higher and higher. Newenergy vehicle companies: sales plummeted 2020 situation is not optimistic
Affected by the epidemic, the sales of traditional fuelvehicles and new energy vehicles both declined significantly. In January, thesales of new energy vehicles fell by more than 50%, and the decline in Februaryis expected to exceed 70%. There will be no optimism throughout the year.
From the perspective of domestic demand, the demand forautomotive power batteries has shrunk, and the demand for batteries in digital,electric tools, and electric bicycles has not changed much, so it will bereflected in the material side accordingly. From the perspective of foreigndemand, China ’s lithium battery exports accounted for more than 70% of theglobal lithium battery materials, which was affected by the epidemic. Due tothe delay in resumption of work, export orders for head materials companiesincluding cathodes, anodes, electrolytes, separators, etc. A short-term impact.In addition, as in the field of batteries and equipment, affected by thecapital chain, many material companies will face greater pressure for survival,and the reshuffle and integration of the medium and long-term industry willaccelerate. The concentration of market segments will be further enhanced, andmerger and integration cases in industries like Enjie's acquisition of Jiliwill continue to be staged in 2020. With the continuous growth of the globalmarket, the internationalization of China's lithium battery materials companieswill be further promoted. Among them, patents will play an increasinglyimportant role.
Ashlee Peng, February 27th, 2020